Superpollutants: Science-first orphan well credits
Dynamic crediting that tracks the real emissions curve
We measure today’s fugitive flow, forecast the ramp to peak, then apply decline and control-group survival. Credits are issued ex-post each monitoring year, preserving additionality and aligning finance with climate impact.
1.Measure
Fugitive Emissions
Measure current fugitive emissions
2.Production
History Analysis
Analyze historical production
3.Degradation
Ramp Phase
Model exponential increase from current to peak emissions
4.Depletion
Decline Phase
Apply reservoir decline curve as pressure drops
5.Control
Group Survival
Adjust baseline by peer well survival probability
6.Buffer
Risk Pool
Withhold credits for physical reversal and fraud risks
1.Measure
Fugitive Emissions
Measure current fugitive emissions
2.Production
History Analysis
Analyze historical production
3.Degradation
Ramp Phase
Model exponential increase from current to peak emissions
4.Depletion
Decline Phase
Apply reservoir decline curve as pressure drops
5.Control
Group Survival
Adjust baseline by peer well survival probability
6.Buffer
Risk Pool
Withhold credits for physical reversal and fraud risks
Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas with an outsized impact on near-term warming. With a short atmospheric lifetime, cutting methane emissions is the fastest way to slow climate change this decade. Orphaned oil and gas wells represent a tractable, measurable source we can address immediately.
Context & Principles
- ACR methodology inactive since May 2025 due to overcrediting concerns; buyers seeking stronger alignment with ICVCM principles.
- Roughly 4.5M credits across 27 wells to date (~175k per well) despite most wells being plugged only 1–2 years—highlighting how upfront issuance can overstate avoided emissions.
- $4.7B IIJA funding increases the probability wells are plugged by states; measuring each project's real control-group plugging rate via state databases is essential for defensible additionality.
- CH₄mber’s approach emphasizes measured emissions, project-specific control-group tracking (not preset curves), and annual ex-post issuance with uncertainty discounts.
- Time-aligned crediting matches the real emissions curve, avoiding upfront over-issuance
- Control group survival enforces additionality by reducing baseline as peer wells are plugged
- Ex-post issuance prevents overcrediting by issuing credits only after annual verification
- Buffer pools address residual risks including physical reversal, monitoring fraud, and catastrophic events
- Measure fugitive emissions with calibrated equipment rather than assuming theoretical maximums
- Model degradation and decline separately using field-observed timelines and reservoir physics
- Track control-group plugging via state databases (RRC, OCC, DOGGR) to measure real government plugging probability—not preset curves—ensuring project-specific additionality
- Issue credits annually after verification with uncertainty discounts and leak test validation
- Validate degradation timelines across different formations, depths, and well characteristics
- Expand control group datasets by region to capture state-specific plugging priorities and funding levels
- Refine buffer pool release schedules based on observed plug permanence and failure rates
- Integrate continuous monitoring data from IoT sensors to improve real-time baseline adjustments